immi_seeker
09-14 03:04 PM
I was among the very first to predict forward movement of EB2 (8 months back when most of the information available suggested no movement). Looking at September approvals i will see there will be very few cases pending from 2002-2004 for EB2 (those pending will be cleared in next few months since PD will stay current).
My estimate is that
EB2-India pending applications with PD older than Dec-2004 no more than 2000.
EB2 India had used 8000-10000 visa in 2009 (5000-7000 in Sept 2009 alone)
Holding following assumptions we will see more forward movement in coming months and whole of 2010 fiscal year.
Slow improvement in economy (fewer new applications from EB2-ROW and EB1)
PERM applications stay stuck (as they are very few approvals in last 12 months)
CIS is force to allocate visa every quarter (leading to large spill-over)
Fewer EB3 to EB2 porting
CIS has prudently processed most old cases (pending for name-checks) and also pre-adjucated most cases filled in 2007-2008. So if they have visa numbers pending we should see big movment in Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin. This movement could cover all EB2-I 2005 cases in next two quarters (by March 2010). How explained below
EB2 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)
EB1 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)
Assuming 3k spillover from (EB1/EB4/EB5 to EB2) => EB2 will get 13K visa
EB2 ROW uses 7K (700 India, 700 China, +5k others) - there are 6K visa to allocated by Dec 2009 and 12K by March 2010 which will be given to EB2-India.
BEC LCA applicants in 2005 estimate (EB2 India) = 2000 => 4400
PERM applicants in 2005 (7276 of this 40% are Indian and 60% from EB2 ) -> 1750 LCA
1100 LCA => 3850 GC
Total pending I-485 in 2005 (EB2 India) ~ 8000
This would mean PD will cross 2005 in next 2 quarters. I have pesimetic estimates so it will not surprise me it the dates move more rapidly.
seems to be a good and close to accurate analysis. we have to wait & see
My estimate is that
EB2-India pending applications with PD older than Dec-2004 no more than 2000.
EB2 India had used 8000-10000 visa in 2009 (5000-7000 in Sept 2009 alone)
Holding following assumptions we will see more forward movement in coming months and whole of 2010 fiscal year.
Slow improvement in economy (fewer new applications from EB2-ROW and EB1)
PERM applications stay stuck (as they are very few approvals in last 12 months)
CIS is force to allocate visa every quarter (leading to large spill-over)
Fewer EB3 to EB2 porting
CIS has prudently processed most old cases (pending for name-checks) and also pre-adjucated most cases filled in 2007-2008. So if they have visa numbers pending we should see big movment in Dec 2009 Visa Bulletin. This movement could cover all EB2-I 2005 cases in next two quarters (by March 2010). How explained below
EB2 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)
EB1 gets 10K visa each quarter (28.6% of 140,000 divide by 4)
Assuming 3k spillover from (EB1/EB4/EB5 to EB2) => EB2 will get 13K visa
EB2 ROW uses 7K (700 India, 700 China, +5k others) - there are 6K visa to allocated by Dec 2009 and 12K by March 2010 which will be given to EB2-India.
BEC LCA applicants in 2005 estimate (EB2 India) = 2000 => 4400
PERM applicants in 2005 (7276 of this 40% are Indian and 60% from EB2 ) -> 1750 LCA
1100 LCA => 3850 GC
Total pending I-485 in 2005 (EB2 India) ~ 8000
This would mean PD will cross 2005 in next 2 quarters. I have pesimetic estimates so it will not surprise me it the dates move more rapidly.
seems to be a good and close to accurate analysis. we have to wait & see
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manderson
02-13 11:30 AM
If I am not mistaken I believe Rajiv Khanna already filed such a lawsuit some years ago and lost.
Which makes me agree with walking_dude. With the new NC>180 rule, we can get pretty good momentum by recapturing lost visas and if possible by also increasing country caps and a increase of EB visas from 2009 onwards.
Which makes me agree with walking_dude. With the new NC>180 rule, we can get pretty good momentum by recapturing lost visas and if possible by also increasing country caps and a increase of EB visas from 2009 onwards.
sachug22
06-11 09:22 AM
I guess my 9 months old prediction is coming true (off by a month).
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/1049939-post209.html
I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model
Making following assumption
15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)
EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/1049939-post209.html
I have built a very simple EB2-I Visa predition model
Making following assumption
15000 new EB2 ROW I-485 applications
12000 new EB1 I-485 applications
EB4/EB5 use 70% of allocated visa (30% spillover)
EB2 Visa Bulletin prediction for FY 2010
Bulletin Quarterly-spillover Annual Spillover
Oct-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Nov-09 22-Jan-2005 22-Jan-2005
Dec-09 31-Mar-2005 1-Feb-2005
Jan-10 31-Mar-2005 15-Feb-2005
Feb-10 31-Mar-2005 31-Mar-2005
Mar-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Apr-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
May-10 31-Mar-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jun-10 15-Oct-2006 31-Mar-2005
Jul-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Sep-2005
Aug-10 15-Oct-2006 30-Apr-2007
Sep-10 31-Mar-2007 30-May-2007
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walking_dude
02-13 02:43 PM
Are you sure you understood it fully?
I wrote " if you think ", meaning a lot of harping on is happening based on the assumption that removal of country limits will impact ROW badly. It's not the fact. Though it has been explained a number of times that its not the case, some members obstinately stick to their guns and regurgitate it again!
Taking some sentence written by me out-of-context does not prove anything.
Can I ask you a question? How much of IV goals you have supported till date? How many IV activities you have participated? How much you have contributed? I'm interested in knowing. If you haven't , whether you have incentive or not, it doesn't make even a teeny difference to the movement.
Is the cumulative effect of all three measures good for me (reduced wait time, or no change in wait time), or bad for me (increased wait time.)?
I read this, and I was referring to this:
So, does recapture and the increase in quota and the removal of the country limits, result in a greater wait time for me, as the comment above seems to imply. It would, if the recapture and the increase are not large enough to offset the effects of the removal of the per-country limit on ROW.
Coz if it does, then I don't have an incentive to support your goals, do I?
I wrote " if you think ", meaning a lot of harping on is happening based on the assumption that removal of country limits will impact ROW badly. It's not the fact. Though it has been explained a number of times that its not the case, some members obstinately stick to their guns and regurgitate it again!
Taking some sentence written by me out-of-context does not prove anything.
Can I ask you a question? How much of IV goals you have supported till date? How many IV activities you have participated? How much you have contributed? I'm interested in knowing. If you haven't , whether you have incentive or not, it doesn't make even a teeny difference to the movement.
Is the cumulative effect of all three measures good for me (reduced wait time, or no change in wait time), or bad for me (increased wait time.)?
I read this, and I was referring to this:
So, does recapture and the increase in quota and the removal of the country limits, result in a greater wait time for me, as the comment above seems to imply. It would, if the recapture and the increase are not large enough to offset the effects of the removal of the per-country limit on ROW.
Coz if it does, then I don't have an incentive to support your goals, do I?
more...
desighee
06-15 12:30 PM
dilip
With the level/kind of arguments that you are putting in your posts, I don't think you will be able to complete your MBA or will not survive working as a MBA. So, my suggestion is: save that 100,000 that you are planing to burn doing MBA. Use it for some other purpose.
You are not able to compete with the unskilled people even though you have more than 10 years experience, how you are going to compete with MBA's that graduate from top schools from USA and India with your phony accent. Dont waste your 100,000, use it for your child's education or maybe donate part of it to IV and someone from IV might help you in getting a JOB.
your arguments are stupid man.
Dilip has put fwd everything in a great perspective.
I think you should think about your plans of settling down in the US.To me your chances of survival are quite gloomy considering you don't have aptitude for basic reading comprehension(take GRE to assess your skills)if you go past a score of 400 I would be surprised
With the level/kind of arguments that you are putting in your posts, I don't think you will be able to complete your MBA or will not survive working as a MBA. So, my suggestion is: save that 100,000 that you are planing to burn doing MBA. Use it for some other purpose.
You are not able to compete with the unskilled people even though you have more than 10 years experience, how you are going to compete with MBA's that graduate from top schools from USA and India with your phony accent. Dont waste your 100,000, use it for your child's education or maybe donate part of it to IV and someone from IV might help you in getting a JOB.
your arguments are stupid man.
Dilip has put fwd everything in a great perspective.
I think you should think about your plans of settling down in the US.To me your chances of survival are quite gloomy considering you don't have aptitude for basic reading comprehension(take GRE to assess your skills)if you go past a score of 400 I would be surprised
mbartosik
12-13 05:52 PM
it's not the cost of getting an opinion that matters.
See my two prior posts on being pragmatic.
See my two prior posts on being pragmatic.
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gc28262
06-16 04:47 PM
Merit = Achievement
CEOs Without College Degrees (http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/05/0522_no_college_ceos/index.htm)
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/05/0522_no_college_ceos/index.htm
CEOs Without College Degrees (http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/05/0522_no_college_ceos/index.htm)
http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/05/0522_no_college_ceos/index.htm
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logiclife
05-10 05:04 PM
I am talking from a broad perspective, not IV's goals.
IV never had a goal of asking for a points-based canadian model of EB immigration or asking for self-petition system where EB applicants apply for greencards independent of employer. Even if we want and ask for it, it would never happen - for the very reasons I mentioned above. Firstly it would oversupply the workforce with people who may or may not fill jobs and secondly the protection of native-born cannot be achieved without employer-petition that involved labor cert.
So politically, its almost impossible to get rid of employer-petition for all EB applicants. Maybe STEM/PH.D etc candidates will get a shot at such a provision in near future, but not everyone.
And like I said, the current system has its problems but point-based self petition is not the answer. And we are not singing a new tune. We are working hard beyond our capacities to get the same amendments introduced again that were introduced on April 7th by Senators Brownback, Alexander and Bingaman.
IV never had a goal of asking for a points-based canadian model of EB immigration or asking for self-petition system where EB applicants apply for greencards independent of employer. Even if we want and ask for it, it would never happen - for the very reasons I mentioned above. Firstly it would oversupply the workforce with people who may or may not fill jobs and secondly the protection of native-born cannot be achieved without employer-petition that involved labor cert.
So politically, its almost impossible to get rid of employer-petition for all EB applicants. Maybe STEM/PH.D etc candidates will get a shot at such a provision in near future, but not everyone.
And like I said, the current system has its problems but point-based self petition is not the answer. And we are not singing a new tune. We are working hard beyond our capacities to get the same amendments introduced again that were introduced on April 7th by Senators Brownback, Alexander and Bingaman.
more...
aps
09-23 01:53 AM
This is not fair and good idea. what about people waiting in line for years and invested their money elsewhere because of this green card delays or those who do not have enough money and job in this market situation. All of the sudden you are brining this idea. This is not fair. This is kind of buying green card. There is a investment based green card category available for that. I request you to go through that channel if you are rich. Not all employment based green card seekers are rich. Please keep that in mind.
thanks,
aps
thanks,
aps
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amitga
02-15 06:08 PM
What happend when a law contradicts another law. There is a law which says slavery in unlawful and 'employment at will' is the right of every person on US Soil.
Now another law is that to limit the number of visa which is causing the voilation of above mentioed law. USCIS is follwing the law of visa numbers. In the process the other laws are being voilated. Somebody should be liable for that.
Now another law is that to limit the number of visa which is causing the voilation of above mentioed law. USCIS is follwing the law of visa numbers. In the process the other laws are being voilated. Somebody should be liable for that.
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vdlrao
07-22 01:45 PM
Here's an Apr-2006 EB2-I approval posted today on Murthy forum:
http://murthyforum.atinfopop.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=1024039761&f=1474093861&m=8351049171
Please post the priorirty date of EB2 India/China approvals along with the approval date information, in the following thread ,for EB2 India/china approvals from Aug 2008 bulletin released date(Jul 11th).
I know they will approve pending EB2 India/China applications which they process even before Aug 1st 2008.
Please post the approvals information in the following thread and update the IV Tracker so that it would be informative(helpful) for all of us.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=20230&highlight=vdlrao
http://murthyforum.atinfopop.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=1024039761&f=1474093861&m=8351049171
Please post the priorirty date of EB2 India/China approvals along with the approval date information, in the following thread ,for EB2 India/china approvals from Aug 2008 bulletin released date(Jul 11th).
I know they will approve pending EB2 India/China applications which they process even before Aug 1st 2008.
Please post the approvals information in the following thread and update the IV Tracker so that it would be informative(helpful) for all of us.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=20230&highlight=vdlrao
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nrk
09-17 01:07 PM
I wish your prediction is correct, but do you think the spill over happens from the first quarter,
As per the trend, we are seeing the spill over only in the last quarter from last two years.
Here is what I want to understand.
EB2 ROW is CURRENT except INDIA AND CHINA. EB2 ROW will get 28.6% of 140000.
This means 40040. How they are going to divide these visa between INDIA and CHINA?
This is NOT SpillOver. I know there is 7% rule, but other countries are always Current.
And EB1 is CURRENT and considering Bad economy very few cases will be filed under EB1.
What will happen to those 40040 Visa? If those spillover to EB2 ROW, we may see a large quantity of Visa numbers for EB2.
Considering 50% of each EB1 and EB2 visas consumed by other than INDIA AND CHINA, still we should get aroud 40040 visas this year.If you furher divide 50% between INDIA and CHINA, both will get 20020, Which might be sufficient to cross 2005.
As per the trend, we are seeing the spill over only in the last quarter from last two years.
Here is what I want to understand.
EB2 ROW is CURRENT except INDIA AND CHINA. EB2 ROW will get 28.6% of 140000.
This means 40040. How they are going to divide these visa between INDIA and CHINA?
This is NOT SpillOver. I know there is 7% rule, but other countries are always Current.
And EB1 is CURRENT and considering Bad economy very few cases will be filed under EB1.
What will happen to those 40040 Visa? If those spillover to EB2 ROW, we may see a large quantity of Visa numbers for EB2.
Considering 50% of each EB1 and EB2 visas consumed by other than INDIA AND CHINA, still we should get aroud 40040 visas this year.If you furher divide 50% between INDIA and CHINA, both will get 20020, Which might be sufficient to cross 2005.
more...
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samay
07-14 06:37 AM
Hi,
My appeal against EB2 I140 denial on Chartered Accountant degree issue was recently turned down by AAO. Can I any how contest this decision further without getting my employer involved. They are not interested in pursuing this further. Can I file any type of appeal before BAI or any other court on personal basis ?
Thanks.
NO because I-140 is essentially an employers application.
My appeal against EB2 I140 denial on Chartered Accountant degree issue was recently turned down by AAO. Can I any how contest this decision further without getting my employer involved. They are not interested in pursuing this further. Can I file any type of appeal before BAI or any other court on personal basis ?
Thanks.
NO because I-140 is essentially an employers application.
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arnab221
06-11 04:13 AM
At least Mr Oppenheimer has told the truth that it is curtains for EB2 and EB3 India and China and brought all the hopefuls to the ground . Passing CIR is a distant dream.
Thank you Mr Oppenheimer ! At least you had the guys to spell out the bitter truth , so that we could plan accordingly and plan our return .
Thank you Mr Oppenheimer ! At least you had the guys to spell out the bitter truth , so that we could plan accordingly and plan our return .
more...
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jthomas
06-01 01:25 PM
Lets start writing to authorities about SSA money. This is the best time to ask for it because we are in a recession. They won't be able to make a decision but may remove country quota.
Can we make a letter with all the issues we are facing and mail it to all the authorities.
Can somebody summarise the thread and we look for a action plan. Please do it soon before the fire burns out
J thomas
In a way the whole process have no logic.
to list a few......
Companies recruiting for a "permanent job" 10+ years in future !!!
DOL making sure that this 10+ years future job doesn't replace any US citizen !!!
DOL making sure that the salary is good for this "10+ years future job", using the current data.
Ohh... and expecting the person to remain in the same/similar job and not receive much hier salary even after 15 years.
DOS making sure "ethnic mix" by a "country based limit", so if "India" is divided into 100 different small nations, everyone of them will get GC really fast (even though they are all in same ethnic).
Can we make a letter with all the issues we are facing and mail it to all the authorities.
Can somebody summarise the thread and we look for a action plan. Please do it soon before the fire burns out
J thomas
In a way the whole process have no logic.
to list a few......
Companies recruiting for a "permanent job" 10+ years in future !!!
DOL making sure that this 10+ years future job doesn't replace any US citizen !!!
DOL making sure that the salary is good for this "10+ years future job", using the current data.
Ohh... and expecting the person to remain in the same/similar job and not receive much hier salary even after 15 years.
DOS making sure "ethnic mix" by a "country based limit", so if "India" is divided into 100 different small nations, everyone of them will get GC really fast (even though they are all in same ethnic).
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jeet
07-03 11:54 AM
I have applied for 485 last year and I already have I-140 approved so I meet the criteria for AC21.
My question is that I have not applied for EAD and I am still on H1 with same employer. In case I lose job will I be considered out of status immediately for the reason that I am not using EAD. As I understand being on EAD allows some flexibility in gap in employment until the time of approval of 485 application.
My question is that I have not applied for EAD and I am still on H1 with same employer. In case I lose job will I be considered out of status immediately for the reason that I am not using EAD. As I understand being on EAD allows some flexibility in gap in employment until the time of approval of 485 application.
more...
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BharatPremi
12-13 05:22 PM
In short, you cannot challenge the law itself but, can challenge how the law is interpreted.
In general terms, yes that is the case and it should be. But what if some law is in direct conflict with the main theme or part of the constitution ?
Like here EEO bans consideration of country of origin but EB based immigration allows per country limit. Both concepts/practice are really attached with "Employment". :confused:
And all laws are really covered under the power of constitution? If not than where this one (per country based) lies? Constitutional OR non constitutional?
In general terms, yes that is the case and it should be. But what if some law is in direct conflict with the main theme or part of the constitution ?
Like here EEO bans consideration of country of origin but EB based immigration allows per country limit. Both concepts/practice are really attached with "Employment". :confused:
And all laws are really covered under the power of constitution? If not than where this one (per country based) lies? Constitutional OR non constitutional?
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tabletpc
10-10 11:46 AM
"The idea is to request congress to exempt EB applicants & their dependents from numerical limits of the Immigrant visas, if they buy a home"
Genious...!!WHo ever thought of this idea should be working as one of the committe which advices president on finanacial matters...!!!
Genious...!!WHo ever thought of this idea should be working as one of the committe which advices president on finanacial matters...!!!
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pappu
06-15 12:35 PM
I believe in luck in the GC process. Before 2005 PERM process, many folks applied in states where Labor was fast. They were able to get greencards within a couple of years while others were stuck in Labor Backlog centers (http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=67&Itemid=50). Some cleared all hurdles and got stuck in namechecks for years. Until 2007 Namecheck was a big scare. (http://immigrationvoice.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=81&Itemid=61)
Many people could not file in July 07 for various reasons. Some people were born in India but were brought up in other country. Even they are stuck. Some people decided to rise in their careers and changed jobs on H1. While they did rise, but lost in the grreencard PD race.
So definitely luck pays its role.
Many people could not file in July 07 for various reasons. Some people were born in India but were brought up in other country. Even they are stuck. Some people decided to rise in their careers and changed jobs on H1. While they did rise, but lost in the grreencard PD race.
So definitely luck pays its role.
sodh
03-19 12:42 PM
why do you think labor substitution would increase the backlog?
My company cancelled my labor process the day I resigned, tell me which big reputed company responded to a 45 day letter even when the candidate was not working with them, so that leaves us with companies like Cybersoft who filed multiple I-140 on one labor approval or there are people who are running parallel processes just to be safe and they are buying the sub. labor,so now even if the companies intention's are good,filling I-140 multiple times creates backlog in the service centers and then it is up to your fate if your file is picked up in the numerical order, in concurrent filling it was a race who got the the GC first the original beneficiary or the person who paid price for the same labor. Who are the people opposing substitution ban or the 45 day rule if you find them you will get your answers.
My company cancelled my labor process the day I resigned, tell me which big reputed company responded to a 45 day letter even when the candidate was not working with them, so that leaves us with companies like Cybersoft who filed multiple I-140 on one labor approval or there are people who are running parallel processes just to be safe and they are buying the sub. labor,so now even if the companies intention's are good,filling I-140 multiple times creates backlog in the service centers and then it is up to your fate if your file is picked up in the numerical order, in concurrent filling it was a race who got the the GC first the original beneficiary or the person who paid price for the same labor. Who are the people opposing substitution ban or the 45 day rule if you find them you will get your answers.
snathan
08-18 11:22 PM
sorry, I love preaching.
by the way I was referring to "the guy who thinks americans think he is a slumdog...." not you or everyone. But then again you think that I think that you lead a life lower than average. If you think you agreed with me, instead of calling it obvious being defensive and, just agree with me. OK? And get that chip off your shoulder as well.
Can you tell me what do you think finally and what others supposed to think about it...:D
by the way I was referring to "the guy who thinks americans think he is a slumdog...." not you or everyone. But then again you think that I think that you lead a life lower than average. If you think you agreed with me, instead of calling it obvious being defensive and, just agree with me. OK? And get that chip off your shoulder as well.
Can you tell me what do you think finally and what others supposed to think about it...:D
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